Escalating Conflict in South Sudan Brings Fears of All-Out Civil War

South Sudan is experiencing a significant escalation of violence between government forces and opposition groups, prompting concerns about a potential return to full-scale civil war.

On March 3, 2026, armed youth from Mayom county carried out a violent assault on a village in Abiemnom county near the Sudan border, resulting in at least 169 deaths, including women, children, and security personnel.

UNMISS reported that over 1,000 displaced individuals sought shelter, with 23 injured receiving medical treatment.

The attack was linked to the White Army, a militia associated with suspended vice-president Riek Machar and his Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) party.

The group denied involvement, stating ‘no military presence existed in the area.’

Clashes in Jonglei state have displaced an estimated 280,000 people since January 2026.

Doctors Without Borders (MSF) noted attacks on its facilities in Lankien and Pieri, with 26 staff missing and medical operations suspended due to security threats.

An airstrike on Lankien’s hospital destroyed the facility and led to looting, worsening a severe humanitarian crisis.

The UN highlighted widespread insecurity, with civilians facing indiscriminate attacks, including aerial bombardments and conflict-related sexual violence.

The current conflict traces back to the 2013-2018 civil war, which erupted after President Salva Kiir accused former vice-president Riek Machar of coup plotting.

The war, primarily between Dinka and Nuer communities, caused over 400,000 deaths and displaced nearly half the population.

A 2018 peace deal, the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), established a unity government but failed to implement key provisions, leading to renewed clashes.

Machar, charged with murder and treason in September 2025 over a White Army attack on a government garrison, remains under house arrest.

His supporters claim the charges are politically motivated.

The R-ARCSS faces severe strain, with systematic violations and delayed implementation threatening its viability.

The UN warned that political and military leaders are pushing the nation toward full-scale war, citing ceasefire breaches, insecurity in regions like Jonglei, and the exclusion of key signatories from recent amendments.

The African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council expressed deep concern in January 2026, urging an immediate halt to hostilities and renewed commitment to the peace deal.

UN Security Council briefings in February 2026 echoed these warnings, emphasizing the risk of relapsing into civil war.

Regional instability in Sudan has worsened South Sudan’s crisis.

The Global Conflict Tracker noted over 7.7 million people faced severe food insecurity in 2023, the worst hunger crisis in the country’s history.

National elections, initially scheduled for December 2024, have been postponed to 2026.

President Kiir has announced his intent to run for re-election, claiming it will be a free and fair process.

However, persistent divisions between Kiir and Machar have raised fears of renewed violence ahead of the polls.

Volker Türk, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, warned that South Sudan is at a “dangerous point,” with rising violence and political uncertainty undermining the peace agreement.

He highlighted indiscriminate attacks, including aerial bombardments and sexual violence, which have displaced civilians and exposed them to mass atrocities.

The UN Commission on Human Rights and Human Rights Watch reported that leaders are deliberately undermining the R-ARCSS, calling for AU and regional intervention to prevent further violence.

South Sudan’s political and security situation remains fragile, with the R-ARCSS on the brink of collapse.

The international community has called for urgent action to preserve the peace agreement and avoid a return to all-out civil war.

As violence intensifies and humanitarian needs escalate, the path to stability depends on renewed political dialogue and adherence to the 2018 peace deal.