Lebanon’s Conflict Forces Over 1.2 Million into Displacement Crisis

Displacement Crisis Escalates

Lebanon’s ongoing conflict has displaced over 1.2 million people, according to United Nations data, creating one of the most severe humanitarian crises in recent history. This figure encompasses both internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees. As of one year after the ceasefire, 64,000 individuals remain internally displaced, with estimates suggesting up to 100,000 may never return due to security risks. Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s suburbs have driven families to flee their homes under sudden and violent circumstances. Fatme A., a mother from Ouzai, a Beirut suburb, described her family’s displacement after Israeli strikes, now living in makeshift shelters in the Azarieh buildings, where hundreds of displaced families share limited resources. The UNHCR reported over 1 million displaced persons registered, with more than 133,000 sheltering in government-designated collective sites. These sites lack basic amenities, with communal kitchens and water supplies struggling to meet demand. The threat of explosions and psychological trauma from ongoing violence, as seen in Fatme’s daughter, exacerbate the crisis.

Humanitarian Crisis Intensifies

The humanitarian situation has reached a critical point, with UN agencies warning of aid shortages. The UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) and other organizations face challenges in providing sufficient food, water, and medical care. In March 2026, the UNFPA noted 55,000 people faced acute food insecurity in the most severe phase (IPC Phase 4). Nutritional deficiencies, including 14% child stunting, underscore the consequences of prolonged displacement. Women and children are disproportionately affected, with 54% of displaced persons in shelters being female, including 565 pregnant and 800 breastfeeding women. Access to sexual and reproductive health services has been disrupted, leaving women without essential care. The UNFPA has expanded its response, reaching nearly 10,000 displaced persons with health services, but only $1.5 million of a $12 million appeal has been secured, leaving critical gaps in support.

Conflict Origins and Escalation

“We were sleeping when the strike hit. My daughter is scared, and we have nowhere to go.”

The conflict’s origins trace to the 2023 escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, a group designated a terrorist organization by the U.S., Germany, and Sunni Muslim countries. Hezbollah’s involvement intensified after the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in 2024, which Iran blamed on Israel. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced plans to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, including the destruction of border villages, while Lebanese Defense Minister Michel Menassa condemned the move as an occupation. A joint European statement urged Israel to respect Lebanon’s territorial integrity, but the conflict remains unresolved. The November 2024 ceasefire, intended to last 60 days, has been repeatedly violated, with over 10,000 breaches reported by February 2026, resulting in 370 deaths and 973 injuries. Israeli forces occupy five positions in Lebanese territory, conducting strikes and demolitions that hinder security and return efforts. Hezbollah’s rejection of disarmament and Israel’s threats of escalation have kept the conflict in a state of limbo, with both sides unwilling to cede ground.

Geopolitical Tensions and Aid Challenges

Geopolitical tensions remain high, with regional powers and the U.S. playing key roles. The U.S. has provided over $237 million in security aid, linking continued support to disarmament progress. A tripartite Lebanon–Israel–U.S. mechanism in Naqoura monitors ceasefire implementation, but its effectiveness is unclear. France and Lebanon co-hosted a Paris conference to mobilize support for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), which has completed 90% of its southern deployment, with a disarmament plan due by end-2025. Egypt proposed freezing Hezbollah’s weapons in a demilitarized zone, but no agreement has been reached. The conflict’s extension into Beirut’s suburbs has complicated diplomatic efforts, as the international community balances humanitarian concerns against the need for a durable ceasefire.

Economic Collapse and Public Trust

Lebanon’s economy has suffered devastating losses, with total economic damage reaching $14 billion. The Lebanese pound has lost 98% of its value since 2019, and real GDP has declined by 40% since 2019, worsening the country’s financial crisis. Over $124 billion in deposits remain frozen in Lebanese banks, further crippling the economy. Lebanon’s economy showed a projected 4.7% growth in 2025, though this has not alleviated broader economic challenges. The Lebanese government, already burdened by corruption and mismanagement, faces an impossible task of rebuilding infrastructure while providing basic services to displaced populations. Destruction of homes, roads, and public buildings has left many areas uninhabitable, with the Azarieh buildings in Beirut exemplifying makeshift solutions for survival.

Government Struggles and International Response

The economic crisis has eroded public trust in the government. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have led a government committed to UN Resolution 1701, which calls for a demilitarized zone in southern Lebanon, but enforcement remains questionable. The LAF’s partial deployment south of the Litani River has not resolved security concerns, and lack of progress on disarmament has fueled public frustration. With donor support dwindling, the government struggles to fund humanitarian efforts, leaving displaced families reliant on international aid and local charity. The economic collapse has also driven many to seek work abroad, straining Lebanon’s already fragile social fabric.

Displacement Statistics and Regional Impact

As of early 2026, Lebanon faces a dual displacement crisis: 82,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) and up to 150,000 forcibly displaced individuals. Most displacements occurred in southern Lebanon following Israeli evacuation orders issued on March 3rd and 4th. Israel has announced plans to maintain a security zone in southern Lebanon, preventing approximately 600,000 people from returning. Syrian refugee returns totaled 437,586 since December 2024, reflecting partial repatriation. However, the majority of displaced persons remain in Lebanon, unable to return due to security risks and infrastructure damage.

Strain on Local Resources

“We are determined to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, including the destruction of border villages.”

The internal displacement crisis has strained Lebanon’s already limited resources. The government has struggled to provide adequate shelter, sanitation, and basic services to displaced families, worsening the humanitarian situation. The UN warned the displacement cycle is likely to continue without a durable ceasefire and international support for rebuilding. The presence of Syrian refugees, many of whom have returned to their home country, has complicated the situation, as some have been displaced multiple times due to the conflict’s volatility.

International Aid and Political Deadlock

The international community has responded with aid, diplomacy, and political pressure, but significant gaps remain. The U.S. has provided over $237 million in security aid, but this has been tied to disarmament conditions, which have not been met. France and Lebanon co-hosted a Paris conference to mobilize support for the LAF, but progress is limited without broader regional cooperation. The European Union has called for an end to Israeli occupation and a return to the 2006 Lebanon War ceasefire, but these calls have not translated into concrete action. Meanwhile, the UN has struggled to secure sufficient funding, with only $1.5 million of a $12 million appeal for sexual and reproductive health services mobilized by March 2026.

Ongoing Challenges and Uncertain Outlook

Despite these challenges, some progress has been made. The UNRWA has expanded operations to provide shelter, food, and medical care to displaced families, while the UNFPA has focused on addressing women and children’s needs. However, the scale of the crisis far exceeds current aid levels, leaving many displaced families without adequate support. The Lebanese government, under immense pressure, has attempted to coordinate relief efforts, but its capacity is severely limited by financial constraints and political instability. As the conflict continues, the international community faces a difficult choice: prioritizing immediate humanitarian aid or pursuing long-term political solutions to end the displacement and violence.