TPLF’s Resurgence Fuels Ethiopia-Eritrea War Fears

Ethiopia-Eritrea Rivalry and Regional Tensions

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), once a dominant force in Ethiopia‘s northern region, has regained control after Debretsion Gebremichael became Tigray‘s president. This shift has sparked renewed tensions with the Ethiopian federal government, which appointed Tadesse Werede as head of the Tigray Transitional Administration. Analysts warn this political shift could lead to renewed fighting between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with regional stability at risk. The TPLF‘s return to power, marked by restoring a pre-war parliament in April 2026, has raised fears of a larger conflict. Both nations are building military and diplomatic pressure, with the annulment of the 2020 Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022 worsening instability. This created a power vacuum that the TPLF and federal government now compete to control.

UAE Infrastructure Investments and Regional Rivalry

“The lifting of US sanctions on Eritrea could play a role, but human rights concerns remain unresolved”

A surprising development is how the UAE‘s infrastructure projects in Ethiopia have become a key point of contention. While the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway and other investments were meant to boost Ethiopia‘s economy, Eritrea sees them as a strategic threat. The UAE‘s growing influence in Ethiopia‘s northern regions, near the Eritrean border, has made Eritrea worry about upsetting regional power balances. This concern has led to Eritrea‘s military posturing and its alliance with Sudan, creating a multi-front crisis beyond the Tigray conflict.

The 2020 Election Crisis and TPLF’s Accusations

The Tigray conflict began with political disputes from 2020, when the Ethiopian government delayed local elections due to the pandemic. The TPLF accused Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of illegally extending his term, deepening divisions between the federal government and regional leaders. This dispute, combined with the 2020-2022 war, left Tigray‘s governance in chaos. The Pretoria agreement‘s annulment in November 2022 further damaged trust between the TPLF and federal government. The interim administration under the Pretoria agreement was sidelined, allowing the TPLF to reassert control and challenge federal authority.

Internal Conflicts: Fano Militias and the Oromo Liberation Army

Ethiopia’s conflicts extend beyond its disputes with Eritrea. The Fano militias, a group of ethnic Amhara fighters, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), a separatist group in the Oromo region, have added to regional instability. The Fano militias, formed to protect civilians during the 2020-2022 war, have since become a major force in Ethiopia’s internal security. Meanwhile, the OLA continues its insurgency, complicating Ethiopia’s ability to focus on external threats. These internal conflicts have diverted resources, worsening tensions with Eritrea and other neighbors.

Economic Impacts: Distinguishing the Iran War and Tigray Conflict

The economic fallout from the Iran War has worsened regional tensions, but its effects are different from the Tigray Conflict. Ethiopia and Eritrea have faced severe fuel shortages and rising inflation due to the Iran War, straining their economies and limiting military funding. According to ACLED, the 2020-2022 Tigray War caused an estimated 600,000 deaths, with civilian casualties and displacement reaching hundreds of thousands. The humanitarian crisis in Tigray has spilled over into Sudan, where Tigrayan fighters and Eritrean troops are reportedly involved. This overlapping involvement raises the risk of a multi-front regional conflict rather than a contained border dispute. The international community has called for an immediate ceasefire and aid access, but both Ethiopia and Eritrea have resisted, citing sovereignty and security concerns.

The Path to Resolution: Mediation and Economic Realities

Despite the risks, international mediation remains a possible way to ease tensions. The United Nations and African Union have urged dialogue, stressing the need to address the humanitarian crisis in Tigray. However, the economic impact of the Iran war, including disrupted trade and rising inflation, may force Ethiopia and Eritrea to prioritize stability over confrontation. The lifting of US sanctions on Eritrea could play a role, but human rights concerns remain unresolved, Treiber says. The economic strain from the Iran war has also caused fuel shortages and inflation in both countries, which may deter further military escalation. However, the UAE‘s financial support for Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia‘s investments in Erit, Eritrea‘s port of Assab could worsen tensions, as both nations seek to assert influence in the region.

A Fragile Balance of Power

The Tigray crisis reflects broader regional tensions, with historical grievances, external influences, and economic pressures shaping the conflict’s direction. While the threat of an Ethiopia–Eritrea war looms, the mix of local and global factors suggests a fragile balance. The coming months will test the resolve of all parties, with the potential for either renewed violence or a diplomatic breakthrough. The international community‘s role in mediating the conflict remains critical, but the deep mistrust between Ethiopia and Eritrea, combined with external actors’ involvement, makes a peaceful resolution increasingly uncertain.