A recent study applied the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework to evaluate land-based climate mitigation options. The research found that with transformative changes, global land can provide a sustainable supply of food and ecosystem services while reducing greenhouse gas emissions in alignment with the 1.5°C goal.
Background
Capping global warming at 1.5°C requires a massive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, as well as a substantial reallocation of land to support that effort and sustain the biosphere. More land will be needed to accommodate a growing demand for bioenergy and nature-based carbon sequestration while ensuring sufficient acreage for food production and ecological sustainability.
Study Findings
The study applied the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework to evaluate costs and benefits of different land-based climate mitigation options in Sky2050, a 1.5°C climate-stabilization scenario developed by Shell. The research team used the global hectare (gha) as the standard unit of measurement.
Key Results
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With transformative changes in policy, land management practices, and consumption patterns, global land is sufficient to provide a sustainable supply of food and ecosystem services throughout this century while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions in alignment with the 1.5°C goal.
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If such changes are implemented, 2.5–3.5 gha of land would be used for nature-based solutions (NBS) practices to sequester 3–6 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 per year, and 0.4–0.6 gha of land would be allocated for energy production – 0.2–0.3 gha for bioenergy and 0.2–0.35 gha for wind and solar power generation.
Conclusion
The study’s lead author, Angelo Gurgel, emphasizes the importance of effective policies at national and global levels to support a 1.5°C future. These policies must promote efficient use of land for food, energy, and nature while being supported by long-term commitments from government and industry decision-makers.
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