Bitcoin Price Plunges Below $97,000 Amid Failure to Hit $100K

Market Conditions

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Bitcoin’s price has fallen to $96,256, retreating from its recent high of $99,645 achieved on November 22. The decline follows a 44% rally since November 5, sparked by Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election.

Market Capitalization and Liquidations

Despite approaching the $100,000 milestone, Bitcoin shed over $60 billion in market capitalization during its pullback. Data from Coinglass revealed over $500 million in liquidations across the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours, impacting 197,551 traders. Long positions accounted for $380 million of the liquidations, while $120 million were from short positions.

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Bitcoin’s share of liquidations stood at $70.4 million, with Ethereum contributing $43.4 million. Other cryptocurrencies, including Dogecoin and XRP, saw notable losses with liquidations of $35.3 million, and smaller altcoins like Stellar and Sandbox also took hits.

Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors

Analysts have pointed to geopolitical and macroeconomic factors as key drivers of the market volatility. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have triggered investor shifts toward traditional safe-haven assets, diverting funds from the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, U.S. labor market strength and Federal Reserve rate adjustments have created mixed conditions, enabling Bitcoin’s earlier rally while also contributing to its recent decline.

Historical Patterns and Forecasted Declines

Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin’s parabolic runs are often followed by corrections of 80% (± 5%), raising concerns about further downside potential. Analysts, including Peter Brandt, have forecasted possible declines to $91,583 or even $85,610. The TD Sequential indicator has flagged a sell signal on Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart, supported by Relative Strength Index (RSI) bearish divergence and an approaching Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) bearish cross. These indicators suggest Bitcoin could face further declines, with $94,200 cited as a critical level.

Industry Observations

Industry observers noted a resurgence of traders from the 2020-2021 bull cycle revisiting tokens trading below their perceived fair values, contributing to heightened market activity. This liquidation event ranks among the largest in six months, with Coinglass reporting that Bitcoin and Ethereum alone accounted for $121 million in losses.

Bitcoin’s share of liquidations stood at $70.4 million, with Ethereum contributing $43.4 million. Other cryptocurrencies, including Dogecoin and XRP, saw notable losses with liquidations of $35.3 million, and smaller altcoins like Stellar and Sandbox also took hits.

Market Outlook

Despite the current market turmoil, Bitcoin’s dominance remains strong at 56.2% of the $3.46 trillion cryptocurrency market. Trading volume has reached $48.9 billion as investors remain active. While short-term challenges persist, the medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with historical data pointing to potential recoveries in December.

Analyst Forecasts and Indicators

Analysts have forecasted possible declines to $91,583 or even $85,610. The TD Sequential indicator has flagged a sell signal on Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart, supported by Relative Strength Index (RSI) bearish divergence and an approaching Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) bearish cross. These indicators suggest Bitcoin could face further declines, with $94,200 cited as a critical level.

Market Activity

Market Conditions

The current market conditions are characterized by high volatility, with Bitcoin’s price fluctuating rapidly over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive to external factors such as geopolitical events, macroeconomic data releases, and changes in investor sentiment.