Mali’s junta targets rebel alliance in fight to retain power

Airstrikes and Strategic Setbacks in Mali’s Conflict

Mali’s military, backed by Russian mercenaries, carried out airstrikes on Kidal on April 25, 2026, as part of their response to a rebel push that started in late April. The strikes hit the northern town, which had been taken by rebels after soldiers fled and a Russian mercenary unit surrendered. The Guardian reported the attacks damaged only a house near an old market and left a crater in the governor’s office courtyard, casting doubt on their impact. The rebels’ synchronized assault across multiple areas, including Bamako’s outskirts, revealed the junta’s weakness to simultaneous strikes. This was the first time in Mali’s conflict that jihadist and separatist groups joined forces to attack the regime’s core.

High-Impact Rebel Actions: Airport Attacks and Leadership Losses

The rebel group executed major strikes, including attacks on Mali’s international airport and the killing of the military intelligence chief. These actions disrupted key infrastructure and struck a blow to the junta’s authority. The Guardian also noted the rebels targeted Assimi Goïta’s home, the junta leader, further weakening the regime’s position. The airport attacks and the intelligence chief’s death showed the rebels’ strategy of mixing military strikes with psychological tactics. The defense minister, Sadio Camara, died in a suicide attack, highlighting the junta’s internal weaknesses.

Russian Mercenaries and the Junta’s Strategic Dilemma

The Africa Corps, Russia’s mercenary force in Mali, pulled back from remote posts to bolster Bamako’s defenses, focusing on keeping the regime intact rather than expanding territory. France 24 reported this shift left the Malian military to face both rebels and mercenaries. Regional experts, including Nina Wilén of the Egmont Institute, said the mercenaries’ loyalty to Moscow over Bamako worsened the junta’s problems. This dynamic has left the military in a tough spot, struggling to regain lost areas while defending the capital.

The Rebel Coalition’s Dual Strategy: JNIM and FLA

The rebel alliance, bringing together the al-Qaida-linked Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-dominated Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), uses a layered approach. JNIM focuses on jihadist operations, while the FLA seeks regional autonomy. The Guardian said the coalition’s tactics—like fuel blockades and targeted killings—have weakened the junta. The recent fuel blockade in Bamako caused severe shortages, showing the rebels’ ability to disrupt government control. Analysts note the alliance’s success in coordinating attacks across multiple regions signals a more organized and strategic movement.

The Sahel’s Security Crisis: A Broader Regional Context

Mali’s conflict is part of a wider security crisis in the Sahel, where violent extremism has grown over the past two decades. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that worsening conditions in Mali and the Sahel are causing a humanitarian emergency marked by rising violence against civilians, mass displacement, and worsening food shortages. The Guardian reported nearly 70% of global terrorism deaths in 2025 occurred in just five countries, three of which were in the Sahel. This shows the region’s role as a hotspot for global extremism. The fuel blockade by JNIM has worsened the crisis, disrupting supply chains and forcing the government to impose curfews and mass arrests. Over 2 million people have been displaced in the Sahel, and food insecurity has gotten worse due to broken supply chains and climate change.

The Junta’s Struggle: Implications for Stability and Security

The junta’s fight against the rebel alliance has major consequences for Mali’s stability and the broader Sahel region. If the junta can’t reclaim control, it could create a power vacuum that intensifies existing conflicts. However, the rebels’ dependence on external support, including funding from transnational networks, introduces doubts about their long-term survival. Meanwhile, the presence of Russian mercenaries raises questions about the junta’s reliance on foreign forces. As the conflict continues, the humanitarian impact will likely grow, with civilians suffering the most. Analysts warn that without a political solution addressing root issues, the cycle of violence will persist, further destabilizing the region.