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As the world grapples with the devastating effects of climate change, the United Nations warns that the global warming target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is unlikely to be reached, with a 70% chance of exceeding it.
The world has witnessed a series of climate catastrophes in recent years, with the past decade being the warmest on record. The United Nations’ weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), warns that the chance of exceeding the 1.5 degree benchmark of limiting global warming stands at 70%.
Consequences of Exceeding the 1.5 Degree Benchmark
If the 1.5 degree target is not reached, the Earth is expected to remain at historic levels of warming. This would result in a growing negative impact on economies, daily lives, ecosystems, and the planet. The WMO deputy secretary-general, Ko Barrett, cautions that no respite can be expected from these consequences.
Global warming refers to the long-term rise in Earth's average surface temperature, primarily caused by human activities that release greenhouse gases, such as 'carbon dioxide' and 'methane'.
According to NASA, the past four years have been the hottest on record since 1880.
The main contributors to global warming are burning fossil fuels for energy, deforestation, and agriculture.
Understanding the 1.5 Degree Target
The 1.5-degree target was set as part of the 2015 Paris climate accords, aiming to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It was calculated in relation to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil, and gas, which emit ‘carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas responsible for climate change‘.
Climate Scientists’ Predictions
Climate researchers predict that the probability of passing 1.5 degrees Celsius on a long-term basis will reach 100% in the late 2020s or early 2030s. The WMO forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.
The chance of at least one year between 2025 and 2029 being warmer than 2024, the warmest year on record, stands at 80%. There is also an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2 degrees of warming, despite it being ‘exceptionally unlikely’ .
Climate models predict a rise in global temperatures by 2-5°C by 2100 due to greenhouse gas emissions.
Sea levels are expected to increase by 26 cm to over 1 meter, causing coastal flooding and erosion.
Extreme weather events like hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires will become more frequent and intense.
The Arctic is projected to lose up to 90% of its sea ice by the end of the century, disrupting global weather patterns.
