Reform’s triumph in the UK’s local council elections marks a significant shift in Britain’s electoral landscape, as the party wins most votes and seats across many councils.
The Map That Shows Reform‘s Triumph Was Much More Than a Protest Vote
The local council elections held on Thursday saw the emergence of a new force in British politics: Reform. The party, which has been gaining momentum since its formation, performed exceptionally well, winning most votes, seats, and overall control of many councils.
Reform refers to the process of changing or modifying existing systems, policies, or institutions to improve their functioning and effectiveness.
It involves identifying areas for improvement, analyzing root causes of problems, and implementing changes to address them.
Reform can be driven by various factors, including social, economic, or political pressures.
Effective reform requires careful planning, stakeholder engagement, and sustained effort over time.
A Performance That Exceeds Expectations
Despite securing only 31% of the total votes cast across all 23 councils where elections took place on Thursday, Reform‘s performance was more than impressive. The party secured a significant lead over the Conservatives, who traditionally dominate county councils, with a share of 23%. The Liberal Democrats and Labour trailed behind, with shares of 17% and 14%, respectively.
However, what is striking about Reform‘s success is not just its overall performance but also the consistency with which it performed well across different regions. In Staffordshire, for instance, Reform won an astonishing 72% of the seats on 41% of the vote. Similarly, in Kent, a mere 37% of the vote delivered Reform 70% of the seats. The party’s ability to cluster votes and win control of as many councils as possible is a testament to its organizational strength and electoral strategy.
A Brexit Divide
The map that shows Reform‘s triumph also reveals a striking Brexit divide. The party performed significantly better in wards that voted heavily for Leave in 2016 than it did in places where Remain was the dominant vote. In areas where more than 65% of voters backed Leave, Reform won an average of 45% of the vote. In contrast, in places where a majority backed Remain, only 19% voted for Reform.
This Brexit divide is also evident in the demographic character of the places where Reform did best and those where it did less well. University graduates and those in professional and managerial jobs were least likely to vote for Brexit in 2016. Reform found it more difficult to do well in places where they are most numerous, winning only 19% of the vote in the most middle-class wards.
A Problem for the Main Parties
The success of Reform poses a significant problem for the two main parties: the Conservatives and Labour. Neither party is likely to recover from their drubbing unless they can appeal more to the slice of Britain that has supported Reform. The party’s average share of the vote was strikingly consistent across different wards, winning 32% in previously Labour wards and 32% in Conservative ones.
This pattern suggests that Labour lost seats to Reform at much the same rate as the Conservatives did, a phenomenon that cost Labour control of one council they were defending. In contrast, Reform‘s advance was more muted in wards that the Liberal Democrats and Greens were defending, where its average share of the vote was just 22%.
A Reflection of the Electorate’s Mood
Reform‘s success undoubtedly reflects the mood of an electorate that still has little faith in the Conservatives and is disappointed by Labour’s performance in office. The party’s popularity is concentrated among those who believe the Brexit decision was right, a demographic that has been increasingly influential in British politics.
However, it remains to be seen whether Reform can sustain its momentum and become a major force in British politics. For now, its success serves as a reminder that the traditional party system is under threat from new entrants like Reform.
