As Europe weighs in on Russia’s war on Ukraine, a divided continent faces an uncertain path forward, with differing plans and priorities threatening to derail a potential ceasefire.
The Russian president’s latest offer of a three-day ceasefire received few plaudits in Europe, with Brussels warning of Moscow‘s track record. Critics say the Kremlin is simply trying to curry favor with Washington after US President Donald Trump expressed frustration with Russia’s ongoing attacks on Ukraine.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has its roots in history, dating back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
The two nations share a complex relationship, with Ukraine seeking greater autonomy from Moscow's influence.
In 2014, pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted, leading to Crimea's annexation by Russia.
Tensions escalated with Ukraine's bid for EU integration, prompting Russian military intervention in eastern Ukraine.
The conflict has resulted in over 13,000 deaths and widespread displacement.
A Tale of Two Peace Plans
As world leaders gathered for the funeral of Pope Francis in Rome, Reuters news agency published two leaks: a ceasefire plan reportedly floated by the US after its talks with Moscow and Kyiv, and a counter-plan drafted by European and Ukrainian officials. The rival texts show the US and Europe are not on the same page when it comes to conditions for ending the conflict.
While the US-penned document reportedly foresees full US recognition of Crimea and ‘de facto’ recognition of some other Ukrainian regions seized by Russia, the European text simply says ‘territorial issues’ should be resolved after a full and unconditional ceasefire. The European-Ukrainian plan also demands a strong US-backed security guarantee similar to NATO‘s article five.
In contrast, the American document states that Ukraine will not seek to join NATO and says only that Ukraine will receive a ‘robust security guarantee.’ The US would lift sanctions on Russia under its reported plan, while the European text suggests easing sanctions gradually after a sustainable peace is achieved.
Red Lines and Reassurance
European officials are starting to spell out what they want from the conflict. Weeks of frenetic diplomacy have led to talks in Paris, London, Brussels, and Rome among top leaders and military officials working out how European states could police an eventual peace deal in Ukraine through a so-called reassurance force.
They are seriously talking and trying to address each other’s problems: What is it that you miss? Are you ready to go on the ground? No, but can you provide planes? Would you be ready to do so if the force is stationed in Poland?
The concept of peacekeeping forces dates back to the 'League of Nations' in 1920.
However, it was not until the United Nations (UN) that peacekeeping became a formalized practice.
The UN established its first peacekeeping mission in 1948, during the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Since then, peacekeeping missions have expanded globally, with over 80% of UN member states participating in some form.
Today, peacekeeping forces comprise troops from various countries, working together to maintain stability and security in conflict zones.
However, European and US officials remain at odds on whether and how Washington would provide a ‘backstop’ to protect European peacekeepers from potential Russian attacks.
Europe’s Priorities
Europe’s priority may well be to keep Washington on board and willing to listen to Kyiv. The EU has vowed to keep up support for Ukraine, with committed assistance worth €23 billion so far this year.
But if the US walks away from the negotiating table, it’s hard to imagine a clear Plan B for European countries which regularly pledge to stand with Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes’ without specifying exactly what the ‘it’ looks like.
Plan B refers to a backup plan or alternative solution in case the primary plan fails or is not feasible. It involves identifying potential risks and developing strategies to mitigate them. In personal finance, Plan B might mean having an emergency fund or alternative income sources. In business, it could involve diversifying products or services. A well-crafted Plan B requires thorough research, analysis, and contingency planning to ensure its effectiveness.
