A volatile mix of far-right and centrist candidates is set to dominate European polls this weekend, with millions of voters in Romania, Poland, and Portugal casting their ballots in high-stakes contests that will determine the course of their democracies.
Millions of voters across Romania, Poland, and Portugal will cast their ballots this weekend in an electoral ‘super Sunday’ that will determine the course of their democracies at a time of heightened political, commercial, and economic tensions.
The High-Stakes Contests
Romania: A Presidential Runoff with Far-Right Tones
In Romania, the far-right candidate, “George Simion”, is in a runoff against a centrist independent, “Nicușor Dan”. Simion, who won the first round comfortably with 41% of the vote, has promised to appoint as prime minister “Călin Georgescu”, the winner of last November’s cancelled vote. Analysts have warned that a Simion victory could lead to the country swinging sharply to the right.
Romania uses a proportional representation system, where voters elect members to the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.
The country has a multi-party parliament with two chambers.
To be elected, parties must reach a threshold of 5% of total votes cast.
Romania also has a president, directly elected by citizens for a five-year term.
The president serves as head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
Poland: A Presidential Vote with Liberal and Conservative Flavors
In Poland, the presidential vote will narrow down the list of contenders to be the country’s next president, a role that carries influence over foreign and defense policy. “Rafał Trzaskowski”, the 53-year-old centrist mayor of Warsaw, is the candidate to beat, while “Karol Nawrocki”, a conservative who is formally independent but endorsed by the PiS party, hopes to offer a fresh face.
The Polish presidential vote is a complex electoral process that involves multiple rounds of voting.
According to the Constitution, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes in the first round, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates.
The president serves a five-year term and can be re-elected once.
Poland's electoral system is based on proportional representation, with voters electing members of parliament who then choose the president.
The presidential vote is closely watched due to its impact on domestic and foreign policy.
A Snap Legislative Election in Portugal
In Portugal, which is holding a snap legislative election just 14 months after the last vote, the status quo looks set to continue. The centre-right prime minister, “Luís Montenegro”, triggered Sunday’s vote in response to growing questions over his family’s business activities. Recent polls suggest a similar result to last time, putting the AD on about 33%, the opposition Socialist party (PS) on 26%, and the far-right Chega party on 17%.
Electoral Significance
The EU has taken notice of the upcoming elections, particularly in Romania, where analysts have warned that another disruptor in the region could be detrimental. Nationalists, including those in Washington, have also expressed concern over Bucharest’s handling of the original vote. The outcome of these elections will have significant implications for the future direction of each country’s democracies.
