China’s carbon dioxide emissions have declined for the first time in history, sparking hope that the country may have reached peak emissions and is on track to meet its climate targets.
A Slight Decline: Is China‘s CO2 Emissions Finally Reaching Peak?
For the first time ever, China’s carbon dioxide emissions have declined even as its power demand has increased, a possible sign of a longer-term fall in emissions. According to an analysis by Lauri Myllivirta at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, China‘s CO2 emissions have decreased by 1% over the past 12 months.
The Rise of Renewable Power
The country’s massive investment in clean energy has begun to displace fossil fuels, with a record development of solar, wind, and nuclear power contributing to the decline. Wider economic shifts away from cement and steel production, which are carbon-intensive industries, have also played a role in reducing emissions. Furthermore, the jump in the share of people driving electric vehicles has cut into the demand for oil.
Renewable power sources, such as solar and wind energy, are becoming increasingly important for a sustainable future.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), renewable power capacity has grown by 21% in 2020 alone.
Solar energy is now the second-largest source of electricity globally, after coal.
Wind energy is also gaining momentum, with installed capacity expected to reach 1 TW by 2025.
Governments and companies are investing heavily in renewable infrastructure, driving innovation and reducing carbon emissions.
A Potential Turning Point
If China maintains these trends, its carbon emissions could continue to fall. A sustained drop would indicate that the country has passed peak emissions, putting it several years ahead of its 2030 target. This achievement would represent a substantial physical and psychological milestone for efforts to tackle climate change.
However, several factors could push China‘s emissions back up in the short term. A hot summer could raise demand for electricity-hungry air conditioning, while drought could reduce hydropower plants’ ability to generate electricity, forcing coal and gas power plants to make up the difference. The “Trump administration’s tariffs” have also made forecasts of China‘s emissions even more uncertain.
Looking Ahead
In the longer term, China will need to build hundreds of gigawatts per year of new clean power generation to keep up with demand. Whether the country hits this mark will depend on the targets set in its next five-year plan and the pledges it makes under the Paris Agreement ahead of this year’s COP30 climate summit.
Ultimately, the fate of the global climate does not ride solely on what happens in China this summer, but rather on what happens to China‘s emissions over the next few years and decades.
- newscientist.com | Chinas CO2 emissions have started falling – is this finally the peak?
