As the US experiences increasingly costly and deadly extreme weather events, a critical climate change assessment report is under threat after the Trump administration cuts funding and dismisses scientists. The next National Climate Assessment (NCA) report, scheduled for release in 2027, will provide insight into the impacts of climate change on the country.
The United States has been experiencing an increasing number of costly and deadly extreme weather events, including wildfires around Los Angeles. Despite this, the White House has dismissed scientists working on a report that would have provided insight into the impacts of climate change in the country.
The United States is experiencing climate change, with rising temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the contiguous US has warmed by about 1.5°F since 1900.
The country's west coast is particularly vulnerable, with droughts and wildfires becoming more common.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that climate change will cost the US economy $150 billion annually by 2050 if left unchecked.
Two US scientific associations, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the American Geophysical Union (AGU), have come together to call for research submissions that were originally intended for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) report. The AMS and AGU are seeking to ‘sustain the momentum ‘ of the next report, which is scheduled to be released in 2027.
The NCA is a comprehensive report on the impacts of climate change in the United States. The last report, published in 2023, found that extreme weather events were causing record costs of over $1 billion. Without this report, policymakers and scientists will have limited information to inform their decisions about how to address the issue.
The importance of the NCA report cannot be overstated. Its models are used to estimate the impacts of climate change 25 to 100 years into the future. By not producing a new report, the country is essentially leaving itself without a clear understanding of what the future holds and how it can prepare for it.
Climate change models are mathematical representations of the Earth's climate system, used to forecast future climate conditions.
These models simulate the interactions between atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial components, incorporating factors like greenhouse gas emissions, solar radiation, and volcanic eruptions.
Developed by scientists using complex algorithms and data from observations and experiments, these models help predict temperature increases, sea-level rise, and extreme weather events.
Key model types include General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), each with varying levels of complexity and accuracy.
Why Climate Change Research Matters
Climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe emphasizes the need for research like this, stating that people are often unaware of how climate change is impacting their daily decisions. ‘People are not aware of how climate change is impacting the decisions that they are making today,‘ she said. ‘Whether it’s the size of the storm sewer pipes they’re installing, whether it is the expansion of the flood zone where people are building, whether it is the increases in extreme heat.‘
The Trump administration has effectively canceled the NCA report by dismissing the 400 scientists who had been working on it and announcing plans to slash funding and eliminate offices responsible for the report. This move comes despite a 1990 federal law that makes the NCA report obligatory.
A History of Climate Change Denial
This is not the first time the Trump administration has taken a stance against climate change research. In 2018, during his first term, President Trump dismissed the NCA report and withdrew the United States from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is currently working on a report on global impacts of climate change.
Despite this history of denial, experts remain committed to conducting research on climate change. As AGU President Brandon Jones said, ‘We are filling in a gap in the scientific process… It’s more about ensuring that science continues.‘
The Trump administration's climate change policy was characterized by a shift away from the previous administration's focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
In 2019, the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement, an international accord aimed at mitigating global warming.
The administration also rolled back several Obama-era regulations, including the Clean Power Plan and the Climate Action Plan.
According to the EPA, CO2 emissions decreased by 2.7% in 2020 due to the pandemic, but long-term trends indicate a continued increase in emissions.
The Trump administration's policy was criticized for prioritizing fossil fuel interests over environmental concerns.
