As spring arrives, Bitcoin’s seasonal patterns suggest a cautious approach for traders, with historical data indicating weak performance in May and a potential self-fulfilling prophecy if technicals crack and sentiment flips.
Historically, the next couple of months have been weak for financial markets, with many investors abiding by the ‘Sell in May and Walk Away‘ adage. This seasonal trend suggests that Bitcoin may follow a similar pattern, leading traders to approach the asset with caution as May approaches.
The phrase ‘Sell in May and go away‘ has its roots in traditional financial markets. It originated from the London Stock Exchange and dates back to the early days of trading. The saying was originally ‘Sell in May and come back on St. Leger’s Day,’ referencing a mid-September horse race. This narrative suggests that investors should sell their holdings at the beginning of May and return to the market around November, based on the belief that equity markets underperform during the summer due to lower trading volumes, reduced institutional activity, and historical returns data.
Bitcoin also shows recurring seasonal patterns, often influenced by macro cycles, institutional flows, and retail sentiment. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin’s May performance has been negative or muted recently. In 2021, BTC dropped 35%, one of its worst months that year. In 2022, May was again negative, with a 15% drop amid Luna‘s collapse. In contrast, Bitcoin popped up 11% last May and ended May 2019 up 52% — a standout performance from all months following 2018.
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that allows for peer-to-peer transactions without the need for intermediaries.
Created in 2009 by an anonymous individual or group using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, bitcoin uses cryptography to secure and verify transactions.
The total supply of bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, which are mined through complex mathematical algorithms.
Bitcoin's value has fluctuated significantly since its inception, with prices reaching as high as $64,804 in April 2021.
Traders may grow cautious based on historical price seasonality and fading momentum after strong Q1 rallies. Altcoins, especially meme coins, may be particularly vulnerable to pullbacks, given their recent hype-driven rallies and speculative flows. The data suggests that Bitcoin’s average return from May through October is significantly lower than from November through April. Over the past 12 years, average Q2 returns for BTC have stood at 26%, but with a median of only 7.5% — a sign of outlier-driven performance and recurring volatility.
Altcoins are alternative cryptocurrencies that operate independently of Bitcoin.
They offer unique features, faster transaction speeds, and improved security measures.
With over 5,000 altcoins in existence, the market is saturated with options.
Some popular altcoins include Ethereum, Litecoin, and Monero.
These digital assets utilize blockchain technology to facilitate peer-to-peer transactions without intermediaries.
Altcoins often have a smaller market capitalization than Bitcoin, making them more volatile.
The seasonality overlap suggests caution heading into May. Historically, Q4 marks Bitcoin’s strongest seasonal period, with an average return of +85.4% and a median of +52.3%, whereas Q3 tends to deliver more muted or negative outcomes. If technicals start to crack and sentiment flips, ‘Sell in May‘ could become a self-fulfilling prophecy — especially if the market psychology responds to narratives.
