The UK is set to shatter heat records in early May, with temperatures reaching as high as 29C in south-east England. Will this heatwave break records and last?
Thursday, May 1st, is expected to be the hottest start to May on record for the UK, with temperatures reaching as high as 29C in south-east England. This would surpass the previous record of 27.4C set in 1990.
The UK has experienced numerous extreme weather events throughout its history.
The UK has experienced numerous extreme weather events throughout its history.
The highest temperature ever recorded was '40.3°C (104.5°F)' on July 19, 2022, in Coningsby, Lincolnshire.
The lowest temperature was -27.2°C (-17°F) on January 10, 1982, in Braemar, Scotland.
Heavy rainfall has also been a concern, with the highest daily total reaching '229 mm (9 in)' on October 14, 1975, in Holbeach, Lincolnshire.
Temperatures are forecasted to be around 7-11C higher than average at this time of year, which means that even hot weather is not uncommon for spring. However, with a large area of high pressure blocking rain-bearing areas of low pressure, the UK has experienced a prolonged period of settled and dry weather.
On Wednesday, temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid-twenties across the UK, making it feel very warm. South Wales is forecasted to reach 26C, which could potentially make it the hottest April day on record, surpassing the previous record of 26.2C set in 2003.
UV levels will be high for most of the UK, although moderate in the far north of Scotland. The heat builds further on Thursday, with temperatures in the mid to high twenties forecast across England and Wales, and potentially reaching 29C if the weather holds.
However, for Scotland and Northern Ireland, it will turn cooler with some cloud and showers. Temperatures are expected to fall to around the early May average of 13-17C.
The heatwave can be attributed to a large area of high pressure situated across the UK, which has become blocked. This has diverted rain-bearing areas of low pressure, leading to settled and dry weather. The position of the high pressure also allows for warm air from north Africa and the Mediterranean to enter the country.
A heatwave is defined as a prolonged period of abnormally hot weather, lasting at least three consecutive days.
The UK Met Office issues heatwave warnings when temperatures are expected to reach 30°C (86°F) for the first time in a given region.
According to data from the UK Met Office, heatwaves have increased in frequency and duration since the 1960s, with the most significant rise occurring in recent years.
In 2019, the UK experienced its hottest summer on record, with temperatures reaching 38.7°C (102°F) in July.
Temperatures will start to gradually fall after the peak on Thursday, with temperatures dropping into the high teens to low twenties on Friday. While it will still feel warm in some areas, especially south-east England, which is forecasted to reach 24C.
The rest of the weekend is expected to be dry for most parts, but with a threat of showers in the far south and cloudier conditions in northern Scotland. Temperatures will be mostly around 16-22C on Saturday and Sunday, with sunny spells and highs of 13-17C.
While temperatures are not unusual for spring, the frequency of blocking patterns is becoming more common due to climate change. Data suggests that temperatures this week have been made at least five times more likely by human-induced climate change, which can lead to extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves and droughts in the spring and summer.
However, it’s essential to note that blocked weather patterns can also result in rainfall and potentially cold air in winter, similar to the ‘Beast from the East.‘
