How Reform UK is making headway in Welsh politics

The South Wales Valleys

The south Wales valleys are home to numerous post-industrial towns that were hit by the decline of the coal industry.

Quotes from Voters

• “Labour just don’t represent the people any more. They represent Cardiff and London. They represent themselves.” – Malcolm Pearson

• “Lots of friends of mine repost reels of different things about the Reform party.” – Olivia Jones

• “Just want to vote for someone different. I find Nigel Farage speaks more sense to me than a lot of the others.” – Olivia Jones

• “They’re taking the winter fuel allowance off the pensioners – I’ll be a pensioner next month. The government now, they give to the rich and penalise working-class people.” – Marilyn Bevan

The Frustration with Labour

The frustration with Labour controlling the Senedd for 25 years is palpable among many of the voters interviewed.

Lack of Faith in Politics

Lack of faith in politics is a running theme among voters interviewed by the Guardian. Some believe Farage’s party may be worth a try.

Nigel Farage’s Popularity

Nigel Farage is gaining popularity among Welsh voters. Olivia Jones, 32, a paramedic who lives in Cwmbran, engages with politics mostly on social media. She finds Farage speaks more sense to her than other politicians.

The Reform UK party is gaining traction in Wales, with polls suggesting they could win between 14 and 17 seats in the upcoming Senedd election.

Frustration with Labour Control

Many voters interviewed expressed frustration with Labour’s control of the Senedd for 25 years. Marilyn Bevan, a carer from Abertillery, said: “Labour doesn’t do anything for where I live.” She cited issues such as antisocial behaviour, housing, and potholes.

Support for Reform UK

Marilyn Bevan also expressed support for Reform UK, saying: “Farage seems to be on most people’s wavelengths. He seems to be genuine.”

Polling and Predictions

A poll by Survation commissioned by Reform UK put the party at 20% in a Senedd election, ahead of the Conservatives at 17%, but behind Labour at 30%. A separate unaffiliated poll by Opinium suggested 26% of voters in Wales would vote Reform compared with 24% who would vote Labour.

Nigel Farage’s Appeal

Nigel Farage’s personal appeal is seen as a key factor in Reform UK’s success. Joe Rossiter, co-director at the Institute of Welsh Affairs, said: “Farage seems to be personable and has a good sort of character.”

What’s Next?

Reform UK needs to convince voters and campaign effectively to deliver on their forecasts. Olivia Jones, a 32-year-old paramedic from Cwmbran, said she would consider voting for them: “Just want to vote for someone different.”